余怒涛, 成杭, 阮萍, 王蓬. 从脆弱性到适应性:气候风险对供应链韧性的影响研究[J]. 证券市场导报, 2025, (10): 30-42, 54.
引用本文: 余怒涛, 成杭, 阮萍, 王蓬. 从脆弱性到适应性:气候风险对供应链韧性的影响研究[J]. 证券市场导报, 2025, (10): 30-42, 54.
Yu Nutao, Cheng Hang, Ruan Ping, Wang Peng. From Vulnerability to Adaptability: Research on the Impact of Climate Risk on Supply Chain Resilience[J]. Securities Market Herald, 2025, (10): 30-42, 54.
Citation: Yu Nutao, Cheng Hang, Ruan Ping, Wang Peng. From Vulnerability to Adaptability: Research on the Impact of Climate Risk on Supply Chain Resilience[J]. Securities Market Herald, 2025, (10): 30-42, 54.

从脆弱性到适应性:气候风险对供应链韧性的影响研究

From Vulnerability to Adaptability: Research on the Impact of Climate Risk on Supply Chain Resilience

  • 摘要: 全球气候风险已对企业供应链产生明显冲击,如何缓解气候风险对供应链韧性的不利影响成为亟待解决的问题。本文以沪深A股上市公司为样本,运用文本分析法和机器学习技术构建气候风险指标,探究气候风险对供应链韧性的影响。研究发现,气候风险降低了供应链匹配效率,抬高了企业的生产成本,从而降低了供应链韧性。异质性分析表明,针对位于产业链上游、绿色发展水平较低、管理者能力较低的企业,气候风险对供应链韧性的负向影响更显著。进一步分析发现,从企业内部管理的角度,提升数字技术创新水平、提高资源调整灵活性、提升ESG表现等,从外部监督的角度,营造正面的媒体环境形成“示范效应”、出台气候适应型城市建设试点政策等,均能有效缓解气候风险对供应链韧性的负向影响。本文从气候风险出发,为理解供应链韧性提供了新的视角,也为企业构建气候适应性供应链提供了启示。

     

    Abstract: Global climate risks have exerted significant impacts on corporate supply chains, making the mitigation of climate risk's adverse effects on supply chain resilience an urgent issue. Using A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as a sample, this paper employs text analysis methods and machine learning techniques to construct climate risk indicators and investigates the impact of climate risk on supply chain resilience. The research findings indicate that climate risk reduces supply chain matching efficiency and increases production costs, thereby diminishing supply chain resilience. Heterogeneity analysis shows that climate risk has a more significant negative impact on supply chain resilience for enterprises located upstream in the industrial chain, with lower levels of green development, and lower managerial capabilities. Further analysis reveals that from an internal management perspective, enhancing digital technology innovation, improving resource adjustment flexibility, and strengthening ESG performance can effectively mitigate the negative impact of climate risk on supply chain resilience. In addition, from an external supervision perspective, creating a positive media environment to form a "demonstration effect" and implementing pilot policies for climate-adaptive urban construction can also effectively mitigate the negative impact of climate risk on supply chain resilience. This paper provides a new perspective for understanding supply chain resilience from the standpoint of climate risk and offers insights for enterprises to build climate-adaptive supply chains.

     

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