Abstract:
In recent years, government-guided funds have been widely established, playing an important role in promoting enterprise innovation and enhancing total factor productivity. However, constrained by multiple conditions, their effects exhibit non-equilibrium characteristics. Based on real options theory and using listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets as samples, this study finds that government-guided funds generally promote enterprises' layout in future industries by alleviating financing constraints, leveraging long-term social capital follow-on investment, and improving corporate governance. Further analysis reveals structural differences in the effects of government-guided funds: First, the effects are more significant in regions with high government technology expenditure intensity, active entrepreneurial atmosphere, and high marketization levels, because enterprises obtain technical and institutional support such as innovation infrastructure and technology intermediary services, are more easily embedded in collaborative innovation networks and acquire external knowledge, and enjoy more comprehensive financial services and more effective market signal feedback. Second, the effects are more significant for technology-intensive and digital economy industries, because enterprises possess stronger technological scalability and business restructuring capabilities, enabling government-guided funds to better fulfill their role in providing long-term capital and strengthening innovation return expectations. Third, the effects are more significant for enterprises with CEOs having higher risk appetite, because CEOs with higher risk preferences demonstrate greater tolerance for uncertainty and are more inclined to view policy support from government-guided funds as opportunities for forward-looking strategic layout and obtaining long-term competitive advantages. Subdividing future industries, government-guided funds promote enterprises' layout in future manufacturing, future information, future energy, and future space industries, while their impact on future health and future materials industries is insignificant, since the former have relatively mature technological routes, allowing government-guided funds to effectively alleviate enterprises' innovation funding pressure and accelerate their incremental layout based on existing foundations; the latter face extremely high professional barriers and regulatory constraints, where enterprises' entry decisions primarily depend on long-term technological accumulation and transformation capabilities rather than mere capital availability. This study reveals the boundary conditions of government-guided funds' effects, providing theoretical basis and practical guidance for differentiated policy implementation.
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