柳学信, 吴鑫玉, 孔晓旭. 气候风险披露传递负面信息还是风险补救信号?——来自分析师乐观预测的证据[J]. 证券市场导报, 2025, (10): 43-54.
引用本文: 柳学信, 吴鑫玉, 孔晓旭. 气候风险披露传递负面信息还是风险补救信号?——来自分析师乐观预测的证据[J]. 证券市场导报, 2025, (10): 43-54.
Liu Xuexin, Wu Xinyu, Kong Xiaoxu. Does Climate Risk Disclosure Reveal Negative Information or Risk Remediation Signals? —Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Optimism[J]. Securities Market Herald, 2025, (10): 43-54.
Citation: Liu Xuexin, Wu Xinyu, Kong Xiaoxu. Does Climate Risk Disclosure Reveal Negative Information or Risk Remediation Signals? —Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Optimism[J]. Securities Market Herald, 2025, (10): 43-54.

气候风险披露传递负面信息还是风险补救信号?——来自分析师乐观预测的证据

Does Climate Risk Disclosure Reveal Negative Information or Risk Remediation Signals? —Evidence from Analysts' Forecast Optimism

  • 摘要: 本文利用沪深A股上市公司数据,以分析师乐观预测水平为切入点,分析企业气候风险披露的市场反应。研究发现,企业气候风险披露提高了分析师乐观预测水平,且经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,气候风险披露一是能促进企业管理者自检自查,建立与利益相关者间的长期信任,降低企业经营风险;二是能促进企业与银行、供应商等的信息交流,并向市场传递积极履行社会责任的信号,降低企业财务风险;三是能建立企业良好的形象和声誉,在遭受负面事件冲击时避免股价大幅波动,降低资本风险。进一步研究发现,企业内外部信息不对称程度越低、企业外部监管越严格,气候风险披露对分析师乐观预测水平的提升作用越显著。此外,不同行业的分析师乐观预测水平,对企业物理风险和转型风险披露的敏感性存在较大差异。本文为引导企业提升气候风险披露水平、优化企业气候风险管理战略提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: Using data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, this paper employs the level of analysts' forecast optimism as the analytical perspective to examine market reactions to corporate climate risk disclosure. The findings indicate that corporate climate risk disclosure enhances the level of analysts' forecast optimism, and this result remains robust after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that climate risk disclosure: (1) promotes managerial self-examination and self-inspection, establishes long-term trust with stakeholders, and reduces corporate operational risks; (2) facilitates information exchange among enterprises and banks, suppliers, and other parties, while signaling active fulfillment of social responsibility to the market, thereby reducing financial risks; (3) builds favorable corporate image and reputation, avoiding significant stock price volatility when facing negative shocks, thus reducing capital risks. Further research demonstrates that the lower the degree of information asymmetry between internal and external parties and the stricter the external regulatory supervision, the more significant the enhancing effect of climate risk disclosure on the level of analysts' forecast optimism. Additionally, the level of analysts' forecast optimism exhibits heterogeneous sensitivity to corporate physical risk and transition risk disclosures across industries. This paper provides references for guiding enterprises to improve climate risk disclosure levels and optimize corporate climate risk management strategies.

     

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