Abstract:
China’s bond scale ranks second in the world, and the bond market has become the main channel of direct financing for
enterprises. At the same time, the default of corporate credit bonds in China is frequent, and the defaulting entities cover almost all
industries. The default of Yongmei AAA bond has aroused the attention of all parties. Under this background, this paper studies the
early warning and prevention of default risk of credit bonds, and builds a bond default early warning model. First, the reasons for
defaults are analyzed in depth, and the viewpoints that “economic downturn aggravates ‘debt-deflation’”, “liquidity stratification
leads to difficulties in refinancing” and “mutual insurance of private enterprises leads to the series of default risks” are put forward.
Second, based on KLR signal analysis method, the early warning model of debt default of listed companies is constructed on the
basis of the financial report data of historical defaulting entities, and the relevant index weights are extracted to form the early
warning index system, which is tested empirically. Thirdly, based on the early warning model, this paper puts forward some policy
suggestions, such as strengthening the dynamic monitoring and constructing the classified management method of bond risk.